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Average daily sunspot numbers changed from 160 to 129.3 and average
daily solar flux from 261.3 to 194.3. Geomagnetic numbers were
higher, with planetary A index rising from 21.4 to 39.3.  Seven new
sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 10, two on
October 13, two more October 14 and one more on October 15.
Predicted solar flux is 170, 160, and 165 on October 18 to 20, 170
on October 21 and 22, 165 on October 23 and 24, 220 on October 25
and 26, then 225, 245, 235, 260, 245 and 235 on October 27 through
November 1, and 230 on November 2 and 3, then 225 and 220 on
November 4 and 5, 215 on November 6 to 8, 210 on November 9, 200 on
November 10 to 12, and 205 on November 13 and 14 and 210 on November
15 to 17.  Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 12 and 5 on
October 18 to 21, then 15, 12 and 5 on October 22 to 24, then 5, 1,
2 and 8 on October 25 to 27, then 5 on October 28 to November 8,
then 10 on November 9 and 10, then 5 on November 11 and 12, 8 on
November 13 and 5 on November 14 to 17.  Weekly Commentary on the
Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere, October 17, 2024
from OK1HH, A week ago, we witnessed a strong geomagnetic
disturbance. It peaked on 10 October and its effects in the
ionosphere were particularly evident on 11 October. The recovery
from the disturbance continued until 14 October, but was interrupted
by a further rise in geomagnetic activity on 15 and 16 October.
Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions were generally poor
throughout the period. They did not even improve to average levels.
This development was due to the coincidence with a decrease in total
solar activity.  Links to articles from Dr. Tamitha Skov, the peak
of Solar Cycle 25, ARRL informational pages, solar indices, and
solar information can be found in teleprinter, packet, and Internet
versions of 2024 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP040.  Send your
tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra at
arrl.net. When reporting observations, dont forget to tell us which
mode you were operating.  Sunspot numbers were 150, 130, 95, 108,
146, 141, and 135, with a mean of 129.3. 10.7 cm flux was 216.3,
213.9, 213.6, 194.9, 181.9, 172, and 167.7, with a mean of 194.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 96, 116, 20, 5, 8, 15, and 15,
with a mean of 30.3. Middle latitude A Index was 50, 68, 16, 3, 6,
9, and 11, with a mean of 23.3.

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