= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Solar activity was a bit lower this week.  Seven new sunspot groups
appeared.  The only day with no new sunspot groups was Sunday, July
21.  The next day two new sunspot groups arose, and all other days
each had one new group.  Average daily sunspot number was 208.1,
down from 215.9, while average daily solar flux declined from 226 to
193.  Geomagnetic numbers remained quiet, with average planetary A
index unchanged at 6, and middle latitude numbers changing from 8 to
7.3.  Future geomagnetic indicators look very quiet, for many weeks.
The outlook for the next few weeks has solar flux reaching a short
term maximum of 230 on August 12 to 14.  Spaceweather.com sent out
this alert on July 25.  MAJOR FARSIDE SOLAR FLARE, Europes Solar
Orbiter, SolO, spacecraft just detected the most intense solar flare
of the current solar cycle.  The X14 category explosion sprayed
energetic particles throughout the solar system, causing high dose
rates on Mars and even hitting Earth on the opposite side of the
sun.  The source of the flare could turn to face our planet late
next week.  Predicted solar flux is 170 on July 26 and 27, 165 on
July 28 and 29, 170 on July 30 through August 1, 165 on August 2,
then 170, 180 and 190 on August 3 to 5, 200 on August 6 to 11, 230
on August 12 to 14, 210 on August 15, then 200 on August 16 to 18,
195 and 185 on August 19 and 20, 180 on August 21 to 23, 175 on
August 24, 170 on August 25 to 27, 165 on August 28 and 29, and 170
on August 30 and 31.  Flux values may climb to 230 again on
September 8 and 9.  Predicted planetary A index is 10, 18 and 8 on
July 26 to 28, 5 on July 29 through August 14, 8 on August 15 and
16, and 5 on August 17 through possibly mid September, a long
stretch of very quiet conditions.  Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the
Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere for July 25, 2024.  So here
we are on Thursday, July 25th. Initially it appeared there would be
a continued period of high solar activity, including flares.  A
logical continuing chain of predictions of increased geomagnetic
activity, especially after major flares.  Then finally at 1351 UTC a
message came from NOAA containing the words WARNING, Geomagnetic
Sudden Impulse expected.  IP Shock Passage Observed 2024 Jul 25 1315
UTC.  The development continued and we could read the message from
Boulder, Co.  SUMMARY, Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Observed 2024 Jul
25 1422 UTC.  Deviation 8 nT.  Station BOU.  After all, after a
series of solar flares, this was no longer a major surprise while
the week old forecast by Tom Bayer, RWC Prague, Department of
Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory was fulfilled.  But it was not a
big surprise, the previous major disturbance occurred on 28 June, or
26 days ago.  If the mentioned geomagnetic disturbance develops and
lasts longer, it will adversely affect shortwave conditions in the
following days, possibly until Sunday.  However, the recovery could
be even faster due to the high solar activity.  F. K. Janda, A.R.S.
OK1HH For links to the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov,
information on eruptions, solar havoc, a reconstructed sunspot
series, storm forecast and Cycle 26, please see teleprinter, packet
and internet versions of Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP028.
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra at arrl.net.  When reporting observations, dont forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.  For more information concerning
shortwave radio propagation, see //www.arrl.org/propagation and the
ARRL Technical Information Service web page.  Sunspot numbers were
276, 269, 212, 200, 173, 167, and 160, with a mean of 208.1.  10.7
cm flux was 208.7, 201.6, 207.4, 197.9, 185, 175.5, and 174.8, with
a mean of 193.  Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 7, 5, 9, 5,
and 6, with a mean of 6.  Middle latitude A Index was 4, 5, 8, 9, 9,
8, and 8, with a mean of 7.3.

= END OF 18 WPM transition file <